Panozzo's Pool Predictions

Odds Are In America's Favor by Mike Panozzo

I'm not overly superstitious, but I definitely believe in trends. And trends from the first three years of the World Pool Championship indicate several likelihoods. First, bank on seeing a Taiwanese player in the semifinals. Second, prepare yourselves for an American champion in 2002!

Just how did I arrive at these deductions? Easy. Name the top producers of American 9-ball talent, and the answer would likely be, in no particular order, the Philippines, Taiwan ROC, the United
States and Europe. (Since the talent in Europe basically comes from Sweden, Finland, Germany and Holland, we can lump the Euros into one group.)

Follow the three-year history of the World Pool Championship and you'll notice that a Filipino (Efren Reyes) won the title in 1999, when both Reyes and countryman Francisco Bustamente reached the Final Four; Taiwan's Fong Pang Chao won in 2000; and Finland's Mika Immonen won in 2001, with fellow Euro Ralf Souquet of Germany coming in second. It seems fairly obvious, then, that a player from the U.S. is bound to win this year's title.

But not just any player. While Matchroom Sport's annual Battle by the Bay has produced several Cinderella semifinalists and finalists (runnerup Hoa-Ping Chang of Chinese Taipei in ¹99; runnerup Ismael Paez of Mexico in 2000; and losing semfinalists Alain Martel of Canada and Chinese Taipei's Chia-Hsiung Lai in 2001), only proven superstars have carted off the coveted trophy symbolic of the world champion.

What's that mean for Americans in Cardiff? The 2002 title will be won by either Cory Deuel, Earl Strickland, Johnny Archer or Nick Varner (although Varner is a longshot). While players like Jeremy Jones and Charlie Williams certainly have the firepower, the trend indicates that they lack the
pedigree to carry the crown.

And what is it about the quietly dangerous players from Taiwan ROC? The island country can make a serious argument as the richest producer of pool talent in the world. While it's been feast or famine for the U.S., Europe and the Philippines (the U.S. had two semifinalists in 2000 and none in ¹99 or 2001; Europe posted a pair of semifinalists in 2001, but none previously; and the Philippines had two semifinalists in ¹99, but none since), Taiwan ROC has had at least one semifinalist in each of the three previous championships (Chao twice, Chang and Lai). Bank on seeing a player (or two!) from the Chinese contingent reach at least the semifinals.

My prediction? Deuel will defeat a previously unheard of Taiwanese player for the 2002 title.


Mike Panozzo is publisher of Billiards Digest magazine in the U.S.. Those who share Panozzo's interest in trends should note that he has yet to come even remotely close on any prediction made in the three previous World Pool Championship events.